Introduction: Why Bet on Underdog Teams?
In sports betting, underdog teams are often overlooked but offer some of the best opportunities for high-value bets. While favorites are more likely to win, underdog victories occur more often than people expect, leading to higher payouts for those who bet wisely.
Why Bet on Underdogs?
✔ Higher Odds = Bigger Payouts – Since underdogs have lower win probabilities, bookmakers set higher odds.
✔ Frequent Upsets – Sports are unpredictable, and underdogs pull off surprising wins every season.
✔ Less Public Influence – Most bettors favor favorites, meaning underdog odds often hold more value.
💡 In this 2025 guide, we’ll cover the best strategies to profit from underdog betting, including how to spot value, analyze key factors, and minimize risks.
What is an Underdog in Betting?
An underdog is a team or player expected to lose based on the betting odds. The opposite of an underdog is the favorite, the team expected to win.
Example of Underdog Betting:
- Manchester United (-200) vs. Newcastle (+350)
- Here, Newcastle is the underdog. A $100 bet on Newcastle at +350 odds would return $350 in profit if they win.
🛑 Key Takeaway: Betting on underdogs doesn’t mean betting blindly—it means identifying teams that have a better chance of winning than the odds suggest.
How to Identify a Good Underdog Bet
✅ 1. Look for Undervalued Teams
✔ Bookmakers often overestimate favorites and underestimate underdogs.
✔ Compare expected performance vs. actual recent performance.
✔ If an underdog is in good form, they may have a better chance of winning than the odds suggest.
✅ 2. Analyze Recent Form & Momentum
✔ Look at the last 5-10 games to see how an underdog has performed.
✔ Are they improving or struggling?
✔ Did they recently beat similar opponents?
💡 Example: If a lower-ranked football team has won 4 of their last 5 games, they might be a strong underdog pick.
✅ 3. Consider Injuries & Squad Changes
✔ A favorite missing a key player can make the match more balanced than the odds suggest.
✔ If the underdog has their best squad available, their chances improve.
💡 Example: If Liverpool’s top scorer is injured, betting on their opponent at higher odds could be valuable.
✅ 4. Check for Motivational Factors
✔ Some teams fight harder in important games, such as:
- Relegation battles (teams trying to avoid relegation).
- Derbies & rivalries (underdogs often perform better in big matches).
- Knockout tournaments (one-game eliminations favor risk-taking).
💡 Example: A team fighting for survival in the league will put in extra effort, making them a stronger underdog bet.
✅ 5. Watch for Fatigue & Schedule Congestion
✔ Teams playing too many games in a short time may be tired and vulnerable.
✔ If a favorite has a tough schedule, betting against them could be profitable.
💡 Example: If a top team is playing their third match in a week, an underdog with fresher legs might have an edge.
SUGGESTED FOR YOU
Betting Markets for Tennis: All Available Options
Best Sports for Underdog Betting
While underdog betting works in most sports, it’s most profitable in sports where upsets happen frequently.
1. Football (Soccer) ⚽
✔ Premier League, Champions League, World Cup
✔ Underdogs often win or draw against big teams, leading to huge payouts.
2. American Football 🏈 (NFL & College Football)
✔ Point spreads often favor underdogs covering the spread.
✔ Betting against public perception can lead to profitable bets.
3. Basketball 🏀 (NBA & EuroLeague)
✔ High-paced games lead to random results—underdogs can easily win.
✔ Load management (resting star players) can create valuable underdog odds.
4. Tennis 🎾
✔ Betting on lower-ranked players who perform well on specific surfaces can be lucrative.
✔ Example: A clay-court specialist ranked #50 could beat a Top 10 player on clay.
5. MMA 🥊 (UFC & Boxing)
✔ One lucky punch or submission can instantly change a fight.
✔ Fighters with underrated skills often beat the odds.
Best Betting Strategies for Underdogs
🎯 1. Spread Betting on Underdogs
✔ Instead of betting underdogs to win outright, use point spreads or goal spreads.
✔ This means they only need to cover the spread, not win the game.
💡 Example:
- Newcastle (+1.5) vs. Manchester City → If Newcastle loses 1-0, your bet still wins.
CHECK OUT TOP 3 FREE BETTING PREDICTION SITES
Accuratepredict.com Soccerpredictions.net Betloy.com
🎯 2. Bet on Draw No Bet Markets
✔ This protects your bet if the match ends in a draw.
✔ If the underdog wins, you get full profit.
✔ If it’s a draw, you get your stake refunded.
💡 Example:
- Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace (DNB on Palace) → If Palace wins, you win. If it’s a draw, you get your money back.
🎯 3. Use Live Betting to Find Value
✔ If an underdog plays well early in the game, their odds may drop.
✔ You can catch them at better odds before they score.
💡 Example: If an underdog is attacking frequently but hasn’t scored yet, betting on them before they score gives better odds.
🎯 4. Bankroll Management for Underdog Bets
✔ Use smaller stakes on high-odds bets.
✔ Stick to flat betting (betting the same amount each time) to avoid huge losses.
✔ Avoid betting too many underdogs at once—focus on value picks.
Common Mistakes to Avoid in Underdog Betting
🚨 Don’t bet on underdogs just for high odds.
🚨 Avoid weak teams with no chance of winning.
🚨 Don’t ignore stats and form—research is key.
Final Verdict: Is Betting on Underdogs Worth It?
✔ Yes! Betting on underdogs can be very profitable if done correctly.
✔ With the right strategy, underdog bets can provide huge payouts over time.
✔ Focus on value, research well, and avoid betting blindly.
💰 Want to start winning with underdog betting? Use these expert strategies and increase your profits in 2025! 🚀🔥
